As the world faces up to a winter with Covid-19, I believe there is cause for optimism.
Although we have recently seen an increase in case numbers (which can feel scary), and a tightening of restrictions with continued confusion around what we can and can’t do, the world seems to be better prepared now.
Areas, such as East Asia, have recovered and it is likely that the UK economy will improve as the current restrictions ease.
With the launch of vaccines on the horizon, the prospects for a global economic recovery have significantly improved, although the path ahead is not going to be a smooth one. Also, the wave of monetary and fiscal stimulus continues unabated which is probably good news for investors.
While restaurant and bars closing make the headlines, it’s the continuing functioning of other sectors such as construction, manufacturing, financial services and healthcare which are driving the economy.
However, it is not always easy to separate the forest from the trees as we are continually buffeted by news flow which most of the time is overloaded with doom and gloom. Sadly, this attracts the headlines and is just noise dressed up as short term influences and scaremongering.
It is important not to listen to the doomsayers. Negative headlines sells papers and generates clicks. We’re more likely to read an article about the impending collapse of the global financial system than one saying that investors are likely to do all right in the next decade. But the latter outcome is far more probable.
In the last 20 years there have been many forecasters predicting global disasters. So far they have all been wrong. The impending disasters that are forecast rarely happen. Remember Y2K - it was a non issue. We survived the Credit Crunch in 2008 and the world will get through and recover from Covid-19.
As this tumultuous year draws to a close, it is best to cut out the noise that comes our way and instead focus on the things that matter and the things that are important to us.