Holding firm in the face of uncertainty

With the heart-breaking images we are seeing from Ukraine, it is perhaps hard to focus on the ‘bigger picture’ in respect of our own planning. The depressing and upsetting scenes make this even harder when taking into account what might still be to come as Russia encircles Ukraine’s major cities. We can only hope it doesn’t escalate.

On the investment front, financial markets are likely to remain volatile and with these fluctuations come the inevitable increase in media coverage and the usual financial scaremongering.

As with during the early days of the Covid pandemic it is best to focus on the long term, rather than be pulled by short term emotions.

It’s human nature to attempt to take some form of action, for example, by attempting to ‘time the market’. However, trying to pick winners and avoiding losers is a dangerous game. Although this is a scary and uncertain situation removing emotion from the investment decision making process reduces the likelihood of making a mistake.

At a higher level, it is worth remembering that within a globally diversified investment portfolio, diversification will naturally minimise the risk of loss. If one country performs poorly over a certain period, other countries may perform better over that same period, reducing the potential losses of the portfolio compared to if it had been concentrated in one market. The aim is to position the portfolio in a way where the gains offset the losses, delivering a smoother ride.

Taking a step back, these current events are a sharp reminder how uncertain and unpredictable the world, and life in general, is. A country has done what was considered unthinkable in the modern era, with no one knowing what is going to happen. Not wanting to sound dispassionate, when it comes to investing, I believe it is best to encourage a long-term mindset and try and ignore the push and pull of the ‘financial’ media and suppress our short-term emotions.